The 2.9% 'Launch Leak': Why Patient Churn Begins Immediately (And How to See It)

For decades, patient adherence has been a lagging indicator. We measure it retrospectively, looking at prescription refill data at the six or twelve-month mark. By then, any patient churn is treated as a historical fact—a cost of doing business. 

But what if the most critical moment of drop-off isn't at month six? What if it's in the first few weeks? 

Real-world data from the initial launch phase of a new Patient Support Program (PSP) shows this is exactly what happens. During this short, critical window, 2.9% of all enrolled patients had already churned from the program. 

This is the 'Launch Leak'—a small but immediate drop-off that signals the start of patient non-adherence. 

The Problem with 'Lagging Data' 

A 2.9% leak may seem small, but it's the "canary in the coal mine." This early churn, if left unaddressed, is what compounds into the double-digit non-adherence rates that are all too familiar at the end of the first year. 

The real problem is that for most pharma teams, this 2.9% is invisible. 

• It’s too early to show up in prescription data. 

• It happens between a patient's first and second visit, in a "black box" where the HCP has no visibility. 

• The reasons are often lost, logged simply as "Other" or, worse, not logged at all. 

This initial 2.9% isn't just a statistic; it's the first and most valuable signal that a pharma team can receive about real-world adherence barriers. But you cannot act on a signal you cannot see. 

The Solution: From 'Lagging' to 'Real-Time' 

This is where a modern PSP proves its most critical value: it transforms adherence data from a lagging indicator into a real-time, actionable insight. 

The purpose of a sophisticated platform isn't just to send support messages; it's to listen for exit signals. The moment a patient churns, the platform should capture that event. This immediate signal is a game-changer for two reasons: 

1. For the Brand Team: It provides an immediate, real-time dashboard of patient persistence. It allows you to move from "guessing" to "knowing." You can analyze when the drop-off is happening (e.g., after the first dose, before the first titration) and deploy resources or adjust support content immediately, not six months later. 

2. For the HCP: It provides crucial visibility. The platform can alert the physician that their patient has disengaged, giving them an opportunity to intervene at the next visit—an opportunity that would otherwise be lost. 

You cannot manage what you do not measure. Waiting for refill data to understand adherence is like reading yesterday's newspaper to predict the weather. 

The 2.9% 'Launch Leak' is a clear, data-backed warning that patient adherence is a "Day 1" problem, not a "Year 1" problem. The StayOnTreatment.com platform provides the real-time data capture and analytics needed to see this leak as it happens, giving you the power to act on it.